RESEARCH AND FORECASTING OF CONDITIONS OF UKRAINE POULTRY PRODUCTS MARKET

Анотація

The successful functioning of the poultry enterprise is impossible without adequate information support. In order to make informed marketing decisions the information needs to be  complete, relevant and reliable – obtained on the basis of a comprehensive study of the marketing environment.

Poultry farming is an industry that is characterized by extremely high dynamics of development and it is unrivaled in cost of feed and labor per unit of output. In meat poultry balance of Ukraine it occupies a significant share (about 44.9%). The increase in poultry farms due to insufficient supply of other types of meat – beef and pork, as well as the expansion of production at the expense of investment in the industry substantial funds of private capital.

Ukraine is now the ninth among the largest producer of poultry meat and exported these products to 30 countries – CIS, Iran, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia and others.

According to the calculations, during the 2016–2018 the forecasting fund of consumption of poultry by Ukrainian population (at a constant level of consumption of 23.3 kg / person per year during this period) with a probability of 0.98 can be reduced in comparison with 2015 by 110 thousand tons or by 10.7% due to the forecast decrease in population of the country in this period by 520 thousand people or 1.2%. Projected production volumes of chicken meat during the 2016–2018  with a probability of 0.99 can be reduced by 10 thousand tons or by 0.9%.

It was found that during 2016–2018 the total projected demand for poultry eggs may be reduced to 16.99 billion pieces in Ukraine in 2015 (according to its own production – 16,920,000,000 pieces) to 14.26 billion pieces in 2018 (according to its own production – 14.22 billion pieces), or 2.73 billion units. (16.1%) due to a possible further decline in the purchasing ability of the Ukrainians. According to analysts of the Association «Union of Poultry Breeders of Ukraine» will probably decrease the actual consumption of eggs up to 230 pieces in 2018 against actual 258 pieces per capita in 2015.

Considering the potential for rapid saturation of the domestic market due to the development of powerful poultry farms, at the heart of poultry market development should be export-oriented strategy, which is to balance supply and demand in the domestic market due to export into developed and new global markets. In order to implement this strategy, it is necessary to create conditions for the regulation of food, taking into account the turnover of the global market requirements. Establishment and effective functioning of the poultry products market must be based on the scheme, which provides for interconnection of domestic producers, processors, consumers and export-import operations.