THE PATTEVN LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF DEVELOPMENT AND SPREDING PERONOSPOROZIS ON SEED ONION UNDER CONDITIONS FOREST-STEPPE OF UKRAINE
Abstract
The pattern long-tern projection of spread 0n seed onion under conditions Forest-Steppe of Ukraine are made by in formation monitoring. It is set that the basic factors of weather of current and previous year can influence on a display and spreading a disease. Therefore for the prognosis of maximal display of peronosporozis main projectional indexes which have the most high connection with distribution of disease – average monthly temperature and rainfaill April and September of previous year and rainfaill January of cy were utillized in 2010 year. Them a total index gave the highest coefficient correlation with distribution the pathogen of R = + 0,888.
Individual coefficients are expected correlations (r) which show dependence between the defeat of plants the exciter of peronosporozis (P) and separate elements of weather (X) (by a temperature and fallouts of previous and current year) and individual indexes (e) and total index of weather (E).
The conducted calculations allowed to work out an equation of rectilineal regression, which is the formula of long-term prognosis:
Y = - 92,3376 + 49,7137 x E
where: Y is calculation distribution of illness;
E - is a total index of weather, which settles accounts annually on basis
meteorological indexes;
- 92,3376 and 49,7137 are free coefficients, expected on the basis of long-term information.
The forecast distribution of peronosporozis for every probed year was calculated by putting in the formula of value of total index. Comparison of calculation and actual defeat of plants for 2001 – 2009 previous shows that for 9 years a prognosis was carried out 5 times.
By the substitution of numerical expression of total index (E) in the formula of prognosis already in February we can provide for, that on receptive to peronosporozis sort of onion of Strigunivska of nosivska on the and of vegetation of culture of spreading a disease can attain a level 55,3 ± 8,2 %. Actually an amount of the staggered plants was 48,2 %, that on 7,1 % less forecast. A difference between indexes less than mean deviation on years, consequently, a prognosis was fully carried out.
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