The relationships between crop yields, climate and agrometeorogical factors (Rivne region, Ukraine)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/dopovidi2018.03.016Abstract
Topicality. Ukraine is known all over the world as an agrarian country with fertile soils and favorable climatic conditions, in this respect Rivne region is not an exception among the regions of Ukraine. While the east and south of the country are industrial, Rivne region is agricultural.
Rivne region is one of the Ukrainian regions with high agricultural potential. The geographical and physical features of the region location determine a huge diversity of soil and climatic conditions. The territory of the region is rich in significant reserves of fertile soils such as: Chernozem, Gray forest soil, and others. A large number of crops are grown, owing the favorable hydrometeorological conditions and fertile soils. They form the bulk of the food resources in the region.
The frequency of changes in the climatic and agro meteorological indicators against the backdrop of global warming have increased in the recent years. Changes are the following: the increase in air temperature during the winter months; increased frequency of the long freeze-thaw events; time shift of natural processes; variability in the length of seasons; the extension of the frost-free and growing season; uneven temporal distribution of rainfall, causing the increase in drought frequency; changes in the agrometeorological conditions of crop growth development and yield formation; increased frequency of extreme weather events; the overall decrease in soil moisture and the soil fertility decline; soils degradation.
The above changes are the causes that lead to massive yield losses, since agriculture is not adapted to them. Therefore there is the need to determine the relationships between crop yields, climate and agrometeorological indicators that can help to identify the individual crop yield critical factor.
Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationships between crop yields, climate and agro meteorological factors on Rivne region territory.
Materials and methods of research. Statistical data of crop yields was provided by the Main Department of Statistics in Rivne region, the data of climatic and agrometeorological indicators was provided by the Rivne regional Center for Hydrometeorology for the period 2000-2016 were used to conduct research.
The relarionships between crop yields, climatic and agrometeorological factors on the territory of Rivne region was investigated using such statistical indicators as: the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination.
Research results. The territory of the Rivne region is located within two natural zones: Polissya (northern part) and Forest-steppe (southern part).
Calculations of the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination have been carried out for typical species of the heat-loving crops (grain and leguminous plants, sugar beet, potatoes, vegetable crops) and atypical (corn, rape, sunflower, soybean) of the Polissya and Forest-steppe zones within the region.
As the analysis result of the obtained coefficients (study period 2000-2016) it can be concluded that the climate and agro meteorological factors play a significant role in the process of crop yields indices formation. The increase in certain climate and agrometeorological indicators (average air temperature, maximum surface temperature, the effective temperature sum and the sum of the positive) leads to the increase in crop yields. Meanwhile the rise in others (minimum surface temperature, average temperature in the arable soil layer, the amount of precipitation, soil moisture in the arable soil layer and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC)) instead drives the decline in crop yields.
The only option to obtain the high yields is when the climate and agrometeorological factors are within their optimal ranges. However, such cases are extremely rare in nature, so farmers have to take into account all changes, to follow the principles of rational land use and to choose the crop species that will be more adaptable, resistant and, accordingly, more productive.
Perspectives. The prospects for future research is to find out the dependence of crop yields on climatic and agrometeorological factors that will have a combined effect, i.e., to compute the multiple correlation coefficient, which can be used in order to estimate the influence of set of the factors simultaneously.
Keywords. Crop yield, climate factors, agrometeorological factors, dependence, the correlation coefficient, the coefficient of determination
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