Forecasting of epizootic of rabies in the Chernihiv oblast on the basis of geoinformation analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/dopovidi2018.06.025Keywords:
rabies, epizooty, spatial and temporal analysis, Chernihiv oblastAbstract
Introduction. Here we report the results of monitoring the epizootic situation on rabies in Chernihiv oblast in 2017, analyze how it changed compared to the previous year. The description of the epizootic situation of rabies must base of the use of geographic information systems. It will enable to analysis of the situation, also to form assumptions / forecasts for the increase of the epizootic process and to use of specific prevention of rabies more correctly.
The goal of the work. To determine the geographical trends and changes in species structure of rabies epizootics in the territory of Chernihiv region in 2017 compared to the previous year.
Materials and methods. The data on rabies cases from the Chernihiv State Regional Laboratory of Veterinary Medicine for 2012–2017 were analyzed. Descriptive spatial statistics methods were used: standard deviational ellipses, kernel density estimation. Two tailed z-test for two proportions was used to test proportions equality of cat, dog, fox rabies cases in 2016 and 2017.
Results of research and discussion. In 2017 there were 72 rabies cases in animals in Chernihiv oblast, it is 39 cases less than in 2016. As in previous years, the incidence of rabies cases in domestic dogs and cats prevails. Compared to 2016, the main species proportions did not change significantly. The coordinates of rabies cases shifted on the average to the North and East. Kernel density estimation identified the hot spots of rabies cases in the central and eastern rayons. In the south there was no increase of incidence where in the end of 2016 the space-time cluster was detected.
Conclusions and prospects for further research. In 2017 compared to previous year the absolute number of rabies cases decreased in Chernihiv oblast. The central and western rayons show the stationarity of the rabies manifestation while new hot spots appeared in the eastern rayons. The epizooty in Chernihiv oblast is under significant anthropurgic impact as evidenced by the high proportion of disease among domestic dogs and cats.
Determination of spatial patterns and identification of rabies cases clustering can be useful for making decisions on the efficient allocation of diseases control efforts. We will continue our research with materials from other areas in order to improve the monitoring of rabies in Ukraine and to conduct more effective prevention activities.
References
Achylov, V.H., & Nedosyekov, V.V. (2013). Kharakterystyka epizootychnoho protsesu skazu u Khmelʹnytsʹkiy oblasti [Characteristics of epizootic process of rabies in the Khmelnitsky region]. Veterynarna medytsyna Ukrainy – Veterinary Medicine of Ukraine, 6, 14-17 [in Ukrainian].
Tkachenko, O.A., Hlebenyuk, V.V., & Korolenko, L.S. (2014). Epizootychnyy monitorynh skazu v Dnipropetrovsʹkiy oblasti [Epizootic monitoring of rabies in the Dnipropetrovsk region]. Naukovo-tekhnichnyy byuletenʹ Naukovo-doslidnoho tsentru biobezpeky ta ekolohichnoho kontrolyu resursiv APK – Science and technology bulletin of SRC for biosafety and environmental control of agro-industrial complex, 2, 1, 123-128 [in Ukrainian].
Atamas, V.Ya, Perotskaya, L.V., Maslenikova, S.I. (2008). Osoblyvosti epizootolohiyi skazu tvaryn v pivdennykh oblastyakh Ukrayiny [Features of epizootology of rabies animals in the southern regions of Ukraine]. Ahrarnyy visnyk Prychornomor'ya – Agrarian Bulletin of the Black Sea Region, 42, 8-12 [in Ukrainian].
Nedosekov V., Grishok L., Polupan I., & Ivanov M (2009) Ozdorovlenyy territorii Ukrainy vid skazy – nevidkladne zavdannay nauki i praktyky
Busol, V., Horzheyev, V., Postoy V., & Kozachenko, O. (2002). Epizootolohichnyy monitorynh. Skaz [Epizootological monitoring. Rabies]. Veterynarna medytsyna Ukrainy – Veterinary Medicine of Ukraine, 4, 8-11 [in Ukrainian].
Padalka, O.V. (2003). Dynamika epizootychnoho protsesu ta napruzhenistʹ epizootychnoyi sytuatsiyi shchodo skazu v riznykh rehionakh Ukrayiny [The dynamics of the epizootic process and the tension of the epizootic situation regarding rabies in different regions of Ukraine]. Ahrarnyy visnyk Prychornomor'ya – Agrarian Bulletin of the Black Sea Region, 21, 46-53 [in Ukrainian].
Golik, M. O., Polupan, I. M., Nedosekov, V. V. (2015). Analiz epizootychnoi sytuatsii zi skazu v Chernihivskii oblasti' [Analysis of the epizootic situation of rabies in the Chernihiv region] Veterynarna medytsyna Ukrainy – Veterinary Medicine of Ukraine, 5, 5-8 [in Ukrainian].
Polupan, I., Bezymennyi, M., Golik, M., Drozhzhe, Z., Nychyk, S., & Nedosekov, V. (2017). Spatial and temporal patterns of enzootic rabies on the territory of Chernihiv oblast of Ukraine. Journal for veterinary medicine, biotechnology and biosafety, 3, Iss. 2, 31-36.
Silverman, B. W. Density estimation for statistics and data analysis (1986). Chapman & Hall/CRC.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-3324-9
Fotheringham, A.S., Brunsdon, C., Charlton, M. (2000). Quantitative geography: Perspectives on spatial data analysis. Sage Publications Ltd.
Nelson, T.A., Boots, B. (2008). Detecting spatial hot spots in landscape ecology. Ecography, 31, Iss. 5, 556-566.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05548.x
Golik, M.O., Karlovska, K.P., Nedosekov, V.V., & Polupan, I.M. (2015). Kharakterystyka epizootychnoyi sytuatsiyi zi skazu v Ukrayini [Characteristics of the epizootic situation for rabies in Ukraine]. Tvarynnytstvo Ukrayiny – Stock raising of Ukraine, 9, 16-19 [in Ukrainian].
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Relationship between right holders and users shall be governed by the terms of the license Creative Commons Attribution – non-commercial – Distribution On Same Conditions 4.0 international (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0):https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.uk
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
