Individual forecasting of technical condition of machines and development of method for determining the conditional function of distributing their residual resource
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/machenergy2019.04.063Keywords:
forecasting, resource parameters, technical condition, simulation models, methods for constructing forecasting models, residual resource.Abstract
The analysis of methods for individual forecasting the technical condition of machines and their components in the description of the processes of changing diagnostic parameters depending on the operating time is made. It is proved that most of the existing methods for predicting the optimal residual life determine the standard error of at least 350 - 400 moto-hours. This was the basis for constructing a more adequate and valid description of the real process of changing the diagnostic parameters of the model and developing on this basis a more accurate and reliable method for determining the residual resource of the component. The main provisions of the development of a new method for determining the conditional distribution function of the residual resource of components are given. The equations for determining the mathematical expectation of the process of changing the parameters, the value of the residual and average residual resources are obtained, a method is proposed that allows us to estimate the minimum possible value of the correlation time. The conditional distribution function of the residual resource is obtained, which is in good agreement with the three-parameter Weibull distribution and allows us to predict the probability of failure.
Comparison of the average residual resource calculated by the developed method with the corresponding actual values of the diagnostic parameters showed their close correspondence: almost all values of the average residual resources are within the confidence interval established by experimental data.
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