Modelling the spread of rabies in Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/ujvs2020.03.004Ключові слова:
animal rabies, rabies distribution modelling, foxes, domestic carnivores, information-analytical technologyАнотація
Abstract. Due to the concern for animal and human health, efforts to develop mathematical and computational models for predicting the spatial and temporal dynamics of infectious diseases, including rabies, are constantly increasing.
Therefore, our goal was to model the dynamics of the spread of rabies by foxes, dogs and cats on the territory of Vinnytsia region in the period from 2012 to 2018.
To study and analyze the dynamic spread of rabies in time and space, an information-analytical technology was developed, which is based on retrospective data from registered cases of rabies. The rabies transmission parameter was determined using official epidemiological data from regional veterinary laboratory and regional department of the State Food and Consumer Service of Ukraine.
It was found that rabies spread to a distance of up to 50 km the most in winter (26.45%), from 50 to 100 km in autumn (40.33%), to a distance of more than 100 km in summer (49.84%). In general, domestic carnivores were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 16.98% of cases, and within a radius of 100 km in 55.95% of cases.
Foxes were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 24.33% of cases, and within a radius of 100 km in 58.54% of cases. At the same time, the spread to 50 km is the largest (31.01%) was observed in the spring compared to other months. At a distance of 50 to 100 km in winter (43.67%), at a distance of more than 100 km in summer (48.38%), similar to the indicators of domestic carnivores. The new data will be useful in planning and carrying out preventive anti-rabies measures.
In the future, it is planned to conduct modeling in terms of all regions and create forecasts for the spread of rabies in Ukraine.
Keywords: animal rabies, rabies distribution modelling, foxes, domestic carnivores, information-analytical technology
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