Factors determining the perspectives of biofuels in the transport sector: foreign experience
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/bioeconomy2019.01.097Abstract
This article analyzes the foreign experience of the production and use of biofuels in the transport sector. In the conditions of energy transition period to renewable energy sources are to relevant is the analysis of best practices in the use of alternative fuels by one of the main energy consumers - the transport sector. Achieved the solution of economic, environmental and technical task of interest to reform the energy system based on fossil fuels. Generalization and analysis of the factors determining the prospects for development, selection "drivers" of the biofuels market in the transport sector are tasks of this work.
A comparative analysis of the consumption and production of alternative fuels, structure of consumption of fossil fuels and biofuels, dictated by the features of national energy systems and economic conditions, allowed us to identify situational factors and their influence on the perception of global trends. A comparison of forecast estimates for the fuel market of energy importing countries and suppliers, traditional energy carriers revealed differences in assessing the role and degree of influence of price and technological factors on the prospects for replacing fossil fuels with biofuel. The forecast of indicators of the dynamics of the biofuel market is characterized by a high value of variation, since the pick out key energy substitution technologies are at the initial stage of the life cycle. An analysis of the experience curve obtained for first-generation biofuels can be used in predictive calculations. The results of a retrospective analysis of the biofuel market can be used as the basis for a factor model and, taking into account situational factors, be used to assess the conditions of the energy transition of national economies. To justify the energy substitution policy in transport, the promising we think the implementation of applied LCA-estimates for the conditions of a particular socio-economic system, taking into account the established methodology.
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