Analytical-predictive support of the management of profitability of cereal crops production

Abstract

Cereal production is a complex system, which is formedbased on natural and climatic, logistical, organizational, economic and political factors. The commodity producers are influenced by such external factors as the legislative, financial and fiscal policy of the state and export-import strategy. Crop yields are significantly influenced by natural and climatic conditions, and therefore its level cannot be completely controlled. The variation in yield generates changes in gross collections, crop areas, cost of grain, profitability of production, the size of export supplies of grain. The cyclicality of the production of grain and leguminous crops forms its reversible nature, that is, the return to the result of the previous year and the nature of the change in yield will again have a negative dynamics that will ensure the growth of prices and reduce the level of profitability.

The construction of models that adequately describes the processes of production of grain crops, the application in practical studies of methods for forecasting yields and profitability ensure the adoption of effective decisions on the development of grain production. The construction of a medium-term forecast, strategically important for the economic and social development of the state, plays an important role in the formation of competitive agricultural products. Medium-term projections with a horizon of bias of a year or more allow the commodity producer to make informed decisions that provide effective and cost-effective production of grain crops.

Analysis of recent research and publications. The analysis of the dynamics of grain production was investigated in works VP Tymoshenko, AI Mannel, the fundamental provisions of the theory of prediction were described in the works of SA Ayvazyan, N. Wiener, E. Yu. Slutsky. However, the problem of the dynamics of grain production was studied at the level of trend simulation and does not take into account the stochastic component, which causes unresolved problems in modeling the production of grain crops.

The purpose of the study is to construct an econometric model for the profitability of grain and legume production in order to reduce the probability of low yields based on prognostic estimates of profitability.

Materials and methods of research. The study of cereal production should be based on the construction of economic and mathematical forecasting models that will guarantee stable prices in the grain market, which will reduce the level of inflation in the state. The active use of econometric models in econometric studies is because they can be built based on such modern application packages as Excel, Statistiсs, SPSS, E-Views, SAS.

The methodological aspect of the article is a systematic approach, a statistical analysis of the process of production of grain crops taking into account its stochastic nature. Methods for economic statistics and econometrics were used for formalization and quantitative evaluation. The information base of the research is statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Using a reliable predictive model of profitability of grain and legume production, which provides high accuracy and quality of the forecast, provides information for the adoption of effective management solutions for the production of competitive grain and legume crops.

Keywords: yield, gross yield, expenses, cost, profitability, econometric model, forecast