From nearly zero energy buildings (NZEB) to nearly zero emission buildings (ZEB) Part 1. the impact of climate change on heat consumption for heating buildings
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31548/energiya4(86).2026.100Keywords:
energy efficiency, decarbonization, calculated outdoor air parameters, heat generation and releaseAbstract
Decarbonization, as a process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide, CO2, is an urgent scientific and practical problem of today. As a result of the greenhouse effect, CO2 emissions cause a warming effect and a softening of climate parameters, which in turn affects the reduction of heat demand for heating.
The article highlights the results of a study of changes in meteorological climate parameters in Poltava from 2005 to 2024, a comparison of the normative parameters of the external climate, which are currently used to determine the required volumes of heat generation for heating needs and are standardized according to DSTU-N B V.1.1-27:2010 on the one hand, and the actual climate parameters as of 2024, on the other. A forecast of changes in climate parameters until 2050 is made, for which it is planned to fulfill the main obligations of Ukraine to achieve the tasks of decarbonization and climate policy in accordance with the requirements of the Law of Ukraine “On the Basic Principles of State Climate Policy”. A study of changes in the volumes of heat generation and release for heating needs of the building sector, which are caused by changes in the calculated parameters of the external climate as of 2024 as a result of climate changes for the conditions of Poltava, is carried out.
Recieved: 14.07.2025. Recieved: 19.08.2026. Accepted: 20.08.2026
References
1. European Green Deal, https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en
2. Project NS4nZEBs New Skills for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings https://nubip.edu.ua/proyekt-life22-cet-ns4nzebs-0
3. Renovation Wave Strategy https://commission.europa.eu/publications/strategic-plans-2020-2024_en
4. EU Directive on Nearly Zero Energy Buildings https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1275/oj/eng
5. Law of Ukraine "On the Basic Principles of State Climate Policy" https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/3991-20#Text
6. Global Monitoring Laboratory https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
7. Kolienko, A.G., Suprun, T.T., Shelimanova, O.V. (2021). Optimization of the heat release control system Energy and Automation, 5, 13-27 https://journals.nubip.edu.ua/index.php/Energiya/uk/article/view/energiya2021.05.013
8. Kolienko, A.G., Shelimanova, O.V. (2022). Factors for optimizing the temperature schedule of heat release in municipal heat and power systems Energy and Automation,. 6, 59-69
https://journals.nubip.edu.ua/index.php/Energiya/uk/article/view/energiya2022.06.059
9. Kolienko, A.G., Shelimanova, O.V. (2025). Thermal load of buildings as a parameter of energy efficiency of the heating system Energy and Automation,. 6,. 41-51 https://journals.nubip.edu.ua/index.php/Energiya/uk/article/view/51951
10. IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB). https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/
11. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 156 dated 05.02.2026 “On approval of the national weighted greenhouse gas emission factors resulting from final energy consumption”. https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/uriad-zatverdyv-zahalnoderzhavni-koefitsiienty-vykydiv-parnykovykh-haziv-dlia-spozhyvannia-kintsevoi-enerhii.
12. DSTU-N B V.1.1-27:2010 “Construction Climatology”
https://online.budstandart.com/ua/catalog/doc-page.html?id_doc=26655
13. On approval of the National Energy and Climate Plan for the period until 2030. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated June 25, 2024 No. 587-р.
14. 1KTM 204 Ukraine 244-94 "Standards and instructions for the regulation of fuel and heat energy consumption for heating residential and public buildings, as well as for household needs in Ukraine". Kyiv, 1994.
15. DSTU EN 12831-1:2017 Energy efficiency of buildings. Method for calculating the design heat load. Part 1. Heat load for heating, Module M3-3 (EN 12831-1:2017, IDT) https://online.budstandart.com/ua/catalog/doc-page.html?id_doc=75975
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Energy and Automation
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
All materials are disseminated under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License, which permits others to distribute the manuscript with proper acknowledgement of the authorship and the original publication in this journal.
